Session: 14-02: Carbon Capture & Cleaner Fossil Fuel Technologies II

Paper Number: 169952

169952 - Carbon Intensities of the u.s. and French Electricity Grids, With Possible Sustainability Implications by Total Sector Carbon Reductions 

Abstract: 

U.S. electricity demand is surging due to increasing electricity use by data centers driven by the adoption of artificial intelligence and transportation and building electrification. Electricity in the industrial sector is expected to add to overall demand but not as significantly as the other two sectors. The U.S. Department of Energy projects a doubling of U.S. electricity demand by 2050. How this growth in electricity demand is met has implications for sustainability. The European nation of France also expects to continue to meet the bulk of its rising electricity demand, driven by similar factors as in the U.S., from nuclear power. The French Regional Transmission Operator, RTE, expects nuclear power to provide 50 percent of that nation's electricity by 2050, down from its current 65 percent contribution. In this research, we explore how the carbon intensity of the U.S. electricity grid would change if nuclear power provided 30 percent of the U.S. generation mix by 2050, up from the 2024 level of 18 percent. Wind and solar by contrast contributed a combined 14.1 percent according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For comparison, this research also explores how the carbon intensity of the French electricity grid would change if nuclear power provided 50 percent of that power market's generation mix by 2050, down from the current level of 65 percent. The share of wind and solar of the French electricity generation mix is 14 percent. The research finally investigates sustainability implications from an overall sectoral carbon reduction perspective as a sustainability metric compared to a business-as-usual approach for research-defined milestone years 2035, 2040, 2045 and 2050. The milestone years are selected based on likely deployments of nuclear power in the American and French electricity markets. That is, how would the carbon emissions of both power markets change if these nuclear power generation levels are realized compared to the respective present baselines. The important adjacent question, how would the composite grid efficiency change, is also investigated. The research maintains the current trend of rising contributions by wind and solar up to the modeled nuclear power contributions to the national generation mixes of the respective power markets. Our literature review suggests both research questions have not been previously explored.

Presenting Author: Mckinley Addy AdTra Inc

Presenting Author Biography: McKinley Addy is a Professional Engineer specializing in mechanical engineering, energy systems, engineering economic analysis and business model innovation. He's a principal author of California's State Alternative Fuels Plan and contributing author to the Joint Agency Report on Reducing California's Petroleum Dependence. He also served as program manager for research, development and demonstration of advanced energy technologies across power generation and transportation. He led the joint agency work of the California Energy Commission and the California Air Resources Board that customized the U.S. Department of Energy's GREET (Greenhouse Gases Regulated Emissions in Energy and Transportation) Model for use in California policy, program and regulations, for the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard. He's a vice president at AdTra responsible for the company's Strategic Projects and Research Portfolio.