Session: 05-12 Heliostat Consortium 2

Paper Number: 117421

117421 - A Performance Forecasting Framework for Concentrated Solar Power Tower Systems 

Concentrated solar power (CSP) and concentrated solar thermal (CST) tower systems are capable of higher operating temperatures than other currently deployed CSP and CST technologies, which offers compatibility with more efficient power cycles and the possibility of high-temperature industrial heat applications.  Several commercial-scale projects have been developed in the United States, but projects have underproduced relative to advertised levels in the press releases that announce their approval.  In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing methods to characterize a project’s performance.  We identify key sources of uncertainty in a project’s productivity, and present a framework for forecasting a CSP or CST plant’s performance using a collection of models from the literature that determine a plant’s operations and maintenance for both the solar field and power cycle, including planned and unplanned outages.  We demonstrate the framework using the example of an existing operating plant.

Presenting Author: Alexander Zolan National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Presenting Author Biography: Alex Zolan joined the Thermal Energy Systems Group at NREL in August 2018. His recent work at NREL involves the development of models that seek optimal design, dispatch, and operations of concentrating solar power and hybrid energy systems. His research experience is in the fields of stochastic optimization and Monte Carlo simulation.