Session: 16-01: Poster Presentations

Paper Number: 140924

140924 - Total Costs and Benefits of New England's Energy Transition Attributed to New Wind and Solar Generation and Canadian Hydroelectricity Imports 

Abstract: 

Decarbonization of the electrical system requires substantial investments in renewable generation and transmission infrastructure. Recent modeling for the northeast U.S. indicates that the least-cost decarbonization pathway requires new domestic wind and solar generation and increased intertie capacity with Canada to allow increased imports of hydropower. Between 2007 and 2021, annual U.S. imports of Canadian hydroelectricity have increased by > 1 TWh. However, this increase in intertie capacity and imports is controversial and has been opposed by U.S. environmental and industry groups and members of the public. Two large (9.5 TWh year^-1) intertie transmission projects between Canada and the U.S. were cancelled because of such opposition, even though they appeared optimal from the perspective of capacity planning. Overall, there may be a gap between the generation portfolios and transmission plans that satisfy capacity growth optimizations and the range of projects that communities and stakeholders will find acceptable. However, little is known about the relative importance of different environmental, economic, and health attributes of interest to the public or the magnitude of tradeoffs between alternative decarbonization scenarios. In this work, we survey urban and rural New Englanders (recruited through social media advertisements) to uncover the attributes they value, then develop a framework to quantitatively model the impacts across those attributes. We characterize tradeoffs across scenarios based on increased imports of Canadian hydroelectric power, more aggressive development of new wind and solar assets in New England, and an “all options” hybrid scenario. The quantitative model developed leverages publicly available data from grid operators, federal and state agencies, and scientific papers to characterize environmental, health, and economic impacts based on an electricity dispatch model with hourly resolution. This is then coupled with available modeling capacity for other outcomes of interest, for example, the relationship between installed wind generation and excess bird and bat mortality. The framework we develop is open-source and extensible, so it can be easily adapted to characterize other impacts of interest in different settings. The model supports extensive uncertainty analysis and incorporates sensitivity analysis through probabilistic measures, for example, characterizing uncertain future wind generation using synthetic time series of hourly wind speeds. Additionally, in a context where decarbonization planning is influenced by varying state policies, our spatially resolved model will allow for analysis of the spatial distribution of certain environmental impacts and benefits. This integrative modeling approach therefore generates information that decision makers and planners can use to understand the tradeoffs across endpoints of interest to members of the public. Furthermore, it provides input for planned community workshops, which will assist in evaluating the relative importance of competing economic, environmental, and health attributes among rural and urban New Englanders. Together, this information can guide and justify decarbonization decision-making in New England and provide a template for planning elsewhere. 

Presenting Author: Amir Gazar Virginia Tech

Presenting Author Biography: I am a first-generation Hokie and University of Melbourne alumni currently pursuing a PhD specializing in public and environmental health and policy, energy systems, and climate change at Virginia Tech in Dr. Ryan Calder’s lab. My main areas of interest include energy systems, decarbonization, environmental health, and policy. I am also a graduate research assistant for Dr. Calder, addressing environmental questions pertaining to the local and global consequences of decarbonization.

I received my first-class honours degree in environmental engineering from the University of Melbourne before joining Dr. Calder’s lab. In my master’s research, I integrated artificial intelligence and machine learning in a virtual energy assessment that yielded promising results published in a scientific journal article.

In addition to my research, I am an active participant in the Interfaces of Global Change Fellowship Program, which promotes interdisciplinary work across Virginia Tech campuses. I also represent graduate students from the Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine in the Virginia Tech Graduate and Professional Student Senate.

Authors:

Amir Gazar Virginia Tech
Ryan Calder Virginia Tech
Richard B. Howarth Dartmouth College
Chloe Jackson University of Massachusetts Boston
Georgia Mavrommati University of Massachusetts Boston