Session: 02-02: Advances in Green Energy Modeling and Innovative Technologies

Paper Number: 130704

130704 - Comparison of Clustering Techniques for Solar Energy Production Prediction in Rural Communities 

Abstract: 

The electrification of rural communities is crucial from both a social and economical perspective, aligned with SDG 7: "Affordable and Clean Energy". In this study, we emphasize a significant contribution: the comprehensive comparison of clustering techniques, including K-means, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), Hierarchical Clustering, DBSCAN, and Agglomerative Clustering, to enhance solar irradiance prediction. Based on historical climate data from a rural community in the coastal region of Ecuador, each technique is evaluated using error metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2). This meticulous evaluation leads to identifying the most effective clustering technique in this specific context. Subsequently, the simulations are implemented in open-source software to validate and refine the selection of techniques. The optimal technique is integrated into an optimization program, such as AMPL, to size and design a MicroGrid that harnesses various energy sources, including solar. Furthermore, a penalty is introduced for unprovided energy during less critical periods, maximizing efficiency and energy availability in the community. In summary, this study presents a rigorous and scalable methodology to enhance solar irradiance prediction, highlighting the importance of comparing clustering techniques as its main contribution. This substantial improvement in prediction accuracy has a direct impact on the feasibility and efficiency of renewable energy systems for rural communities, driving sustainable economic growth and working on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Presenting Author: Miguel Torrea Rodriguez Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral

Presenting Author Biography: Miguel Torres Rodriguez
Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral

Authors:

Luis Pesantes Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral
Alicia Punin Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral
Miguel Torres Rodriguez Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral
Guillermo Soriano Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral