Session: 13-02: Carbon Capture & Cleaner Fossil Fuel Technologies

Paper Number: 141746

141746 - Extreme Heat in the Caribbean and Impacts on Human Well Being and Critical Infrastructure: The 2023 Summer Case 

Abstract: 

The summer of 2023 in Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands witnessed an unprecedented surge in extreme heat, surpassing historical climatic norms and prompting a comprehensive analysis of the broader implications for the entire Caribbean region. This study presents the initial analysis of this remarkable heatwave, examining its severity for the region, the broader context of global climate change and its potential impacts on people’s well-being. The study centers on Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands, with a whole Caribbean perspective. Historical and 2023 summer daily maximum heat index are calculated using hourly temperatures and corresponding relative humidity data from local stations and regional gridded data from NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis). The results show that Summer 2023 in the Caribbean region exhibited a significant departure from the historical climate. The heat indices calculated for summer 2023 consistently exceeded the long-term averages. For about 70% of summer days in 2023, heat indices above 100°F were recorded in San Juan and Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico. Our study reveals that the elevated temperatures experienced in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are not isolated incidents but part of a broader regional pattern. The higher anomalies serve as a primary indicator of the severity of the heatwave. It was found that Summer 2023 recorded higher Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) with anomalies of about 2.5°F. The higher SSTs promote greater evaporation rates, increasing humidity and leading to higher heat indices. The study further shows the weakening of the Azores high during summer 2023, resulting in reduced wind speed over the Caribbean during summer 2023. This diminished the cooling effect associated with the influx of cooler maritime air and aided in the stagnation of air masses over the region which contributed to extreme heat events.  The urban center of San Juan, Puerto Rico, experienced elevated maximum temperatures and heat indices attributed to the urban heat island effect.  The quantifiable social consequences of the extreme heat included the widespread closure of schools and the early dismissal of students due to inadequate infrastructure to provide indoor air conditioning leading to significant losses of instructional time. Additionally, the extreme heat increased the number of hospitalizations over the period with energy demands reaching maximum peaks in Puerto Rico and USVI, highlighting the impacts on public health and critical infrastructure systems.  As extreme heat events become more frequent and severe, it is imperative to anticipate the consequences and develop adaptive strategies and mitigation measures to safeguard vulnerable communities and ecosystems across the Caribbean.

Presenting Author: Jorge Gonzalez-Cruz University at Albany

Presenting Author Biography: Prof. González-Cruz is the SUNY Empire Innovation Professor at the University of Albany of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, lead scientist of the Coastal-Urban Environmental Research Group (CUERG). Prof. González-Cruz earned his Doctorate (1994) and Bachelor (1988) degrees in Mechanical Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology and from the University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez, respectively. He teaches and conducts research in urban energy sustainability and resiliency, urban weather and climate, and regional climate modeling and analysis. Professor González-Cruz holds several patents in solar energy equipment, solar desalination systems, aerosol detection, and energy forecasting for buildings, and was recognized as a prominent young researcher by the National Science Foundation with a prestigious CAREER Award. He has authored or co-authored more than 100 peer-reviewed publications, has delivered 100s of conference presentations, and his research has attracted more than $50M in external funding. He is a Fellow Member of the American Society of Mechanical Engineering (ASME), and Former Vice-Chairman of the American Meteorological Society Board on the Urban Environment. He was appointed in 2015 by the Mayor of the City as Member of the Climate Change Panel for the City of New York, and more recently named Senior Scientist of Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Member of the US Department of Energy Office of Science Scientific Advisory Committee. He is the co-editor of the ASME Handbook of Integrated and Sustainable Buildings Equipment and Systems, and was named in 2019 as the Founding Editor of the newest ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities.

Authors:

Jorge Gonzalez-Cruz University at Albany
Frederick Boakye University at Albany