Session: 04-02: Research for the Clean Energy Transition II

Paper Number: 138473

138473 - Costs and Greenhouse Gases Emissions Analysis of the Production and Supply of Aviation Biofuels in the State of São Paulo, Brazil 

Abstract: 

The globally recognized objectives set by the aviation sector, striving for the widespread implementation of aviation biofuels and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, underscore the critical necessity of establishing a domestic biofuel production infrastructure. However, the formidable hurdle of high production costs remains a significant impediment to achieving broad-scale adoption. This study aims to address these challenges by deploying a sophisticated computational optimization model, which analyzes the impact of the spatial distribution of biojet production plants on the production and logistics costs of aviation biofuels.

Focusing exclusively on products derived from the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) process and those utilizing by-products from sugarcane, the investigation centers on plants and airports within the State of São Paulo. The results highlight a substantial cost disparity, with production costs of this alternative to fossil fuels being 160% higher than traditional aviation fuels. Despite this, the strategic identification and selection of mills capable of optimizing biojet production could potentially reduce costs by an impressive factor of up to 11 times.

Surprisingly, the study reveals that the choice of plants and transportation routes has a limited impact on both production costs and the minimization of greenhouse gas emissions during transport. Decision-makers, aiming for cost reduction, preferentially select the smallest possible number of plants to mitigate conversion expenses. Conversely, to curtail emissions, decision-makers prioritize plants situated in close proximity to airports, thereby diminishing pollutant emissions arising from the transportation of aviation biofuels.

In addition to the cost and emission reduction aspects, this study sheds light on the current competitiveness of aviation biofuels in the market. A critical finding is the current disparity in costs compared to traditional fuels. Even when considering the most economical price identified in this study (R$ 7.74/L) in contrast to the reference price of aviation kerosene (R$ 2.98/L), there remains a significant 160% difference. However, the study underscores the vital role of continued research and development, particularly in streamlining the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) process utilizing sugarcane by-products, to bridge this cost gap and enhance the national viability of aviation biofuel adoption.

Looking ahead, the study emphasizes the critical importance of future analyses that delve into alternative production methods encompassing raw materials and processes. Additionally, a vigilant eye on technological advancements is imperative to catalyze innovation in aviation biofuel production. In a more granular sub-scenario analysis, Model I emerges as the more suitable option, being closer to the quantity emitted by Submodel N1 in terms of cost differences, making it an apt choice for overall cost and emission reduction.

While acknowledging the current cost disparity compared to traditional fuels, the study advocates for the national viability of aviation biofuel adoption through cost-effective processes, such as the ATJ method utilizing sugarcane by-products. Furthermore, it suggests future expansions to encompass the entirety of Brazil, considering regions with substantial potential for sugarcane production. Exploring alternative raw materials and production processes is recommended to enhance economic viability and attractiveness, thereby steering the aviation industry towards more sustainable practices.

Presenting Author: Celma De Oliveira Ribeiro University of São Paulo

Presenting Author Biography: Celma de Oliveira Ribeiro has a B.S. in Computer Science by the University of São Paulo – USP. She is PhD in Industrial Engineering by the University of São Paulo and was post-doctoral fellow at Porto University – Portugal. She is Associate Professor since 2019 and vice deputy of the at Industrial Engineering Department at Polytechnic School, USP, currently. Celma worked at Ultragaz, a Brazilian liquefied petroleum gas distribution company and was Director of Fundação Carlos Alberto Vanzolini a foundation focused on Industrial Engineering and operations management. Her research area is optimization, mathematical modelling and data science applied to engineering problems focused on energy transition. She has been working with the development decision models under uncertainty considering financial, environmental, and technological risk. She receives grants from Brazilian research agency as productivity fellow (level 2).

Authors:

Pedro Gerber Machado University of São Paulo
Aline Veronese Da Silva State University of Campinas
Claudio Augusto Oller Do Nascimento University of São Paulo
Celma De Oliveira Ribeiro University of São Paulo